Katy & Fulshear · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 9 homes · starts 5823 Stern Springs Ln @ 9:00 AM
✅ "We have been leasing — is buying here actually better?" — answered
Short answer: owning costs a bit more each month, and it buys you a payment that stops moving —
in a market that has just swung toward buyers.
What a lease costs now. A three-bedroom rental in Fulshear runs
$2,175–$2,585 a month across four independent sources, and it is
rising about 10% a year — RentHop measures 3-BR Fulshear up 10.41% in twelve months
(from $1,970 to $2,175), Zumper measures the whole Fulshear rental market up about 10%.
What these nine cost to own.$2,828–$3,506 a month all-in
(principal, interest, property tax, HOA and an insurance estimate) — so roughly
$243 to $1,331 a month more than renting, today, at 6.69% and 20% down.
Why now is the interesting part. This market has moved to your side of the table.
Zillow has 77441 typical value down 2.0% over the past year; Orchard has 77494 median sale price
down 7.1% with days-on-market at 37 days versus 23 a year ago; Movoto has Katy at
36 days versus 25. Homes sitting longer and prices flat-to-down is the definition of negotiating room —
on price, on closing costs, on repairs.
Verdict: renting is cheaper this month and more expensive every year after. Owning these homes runs
$243 more a month at the cheap end and $1,331 more at the top end — and it fixes
that number for thirty years while you buy into the softest seller's position in several years.
The cheapest home on this list, 29322 Wood Lily Dr at $2,828/mo, is inside
$243/mo of the top of the Fulshear 3-BR rent range right now.
See the per-home monthly numbers →
Rent figures are third-party market reports, not TPJG estimates — each row links to its own source and carries its own as-of date. The ownership range is ours; every assumption behind it is printed below.
Why Katy & Fulshear fits your list. Your criteria were one story, under $450K,
built 2010 or later, no pool, and the same area as Missy. All nine of these homes are
in Missy and Ron's own corner of Fort Bend County — the farthest one is
3.7 miles from their front door, the closest is 0.7 miles.
Every one was built 2013 or later, so you are not buying anyone's deferred maintenance:
roofs, HVAC and water heaters are still in their first cycle. And every one of the nine is priced
below the going rate for its zip — Orchard puts the 77441 median sale price at $485,490
over the last 30 days and Zillow puts the 77441 typical home value at $518,728; the priciest home on
this tour is $435,000. You are shopping the affordable end of a market that
is already softening.
Criteria per Missy Howard, 2026-08-03. Zip-level prices: Orchard and Zillow, Aug 2026 (linked in Sources below).
👪 How close will you be to Missy & Ron?
Straight-line distance from 5823 Stern Springs Ln — their front door, and the start of the tour.
"About" is at the 3-minutes-per-mile pace we use for local driving.
Home
Community
From Missy & Ron's
About
List price
55 Floral Hills Ln
Cross Creek Ranch
0.7 mi
2 min
$415,000
29147 Crystal Rose Ln
Cross Creek Ranch
0.8 mi
2 min
$425,000
29650 Mahogany View Ln
Cross Creek Ranch
1.2 mi
3 min
$409,000
4506 Hazel Bay Ct
Cross Creek Ranch
1.3 mi
4 min
$394,500
4910 Augusta Pointe Ct
Cinco Ranch Southwest
3.2 mi
10 min
$435,000
4910 Pebble Beach Pl
Cinco Ranch Southwest
3.3 mi
10 min
$395,900
4915 N Caponi Falls Ln S
Cinco Ranch Southwest
3.4 mi
10 min
$375,000
29411 Amber Pine Ct
Jordan Ranch / Firethorne
3.4 mi
10 min
$380,000
29322 Wood Lily Dr
Jordan Ranch / Firethorne
3.7 mi
11 min
$359,000
Distances computed from geocoded coordinates (OpenStreetMap, 2026-08-08). Real driving distance is a little longer than straight-line; the route map below shows the actual roads.
⚠ Status change since we built your list.55 Floral Hills Ln
is now marked
Under Contract - OP on the MLS — the seller has accepted an
offer. It is still on the tour: an under-contract home can fall out of contract, it is the sharpest possible
comparison for everything else you will see that morning, and you can be positioned as the back-up offer.
Joseph confirms the exact status with the listing agent before you walk in.
Read live from the MLS listing on 2026-08-09. This was Active when the pack was first built on 2026-08-08.
4 of these have open houses today.55 Floral Hills Ln, 29147 Crystal Rose Ln, 4506 Hazel Bay Ct and 4915 N Caponi Falls Ln S —
including both of the homes Gayla flagged first.
Every one of those open houses starts in the afternoon and our whole tour is done by late morning, so we see
each of them privately, before the public walks in — you get the house to yourselves and the first
conversation with the listing agent.
Open-house times read from each live MLS listing on 2026-08-09: 55 Floral Hills Ln Sun Aug 9, 2:00-5:00 PM; 29147 Crystal Rose Ln Sun Aug 9, 2:00-4:00 PM; 4506 Hazel Bay Ct Sun Aug 9, 1:00-4:00 PM; 4915 N Caponi Falls Ln S Sun Aug 9, 3:00-5:00 PM.
The Tour — 9 homes, route-ordered
Route-ordered to minimise drive time. Times assume a 9:00a start, about 15 minutes inside each
home plus the drive. This order is shared with Setup and Conduct — one source of truth. If Joseph re-orders a
stop on Setup, it re-orders here too.
Route map (live drive times)
Green pin = Missy & Ron's home (the start) · numbered pins = stops in order · dashed line = drive path. Pin colour = community cluster.
Two homes with the same sticker price are not the same monthly payment. Across these nine, the
property-tax rate runs from 2.18% to 3.17% and the HOA from $1,100 to $1,530 a year.
That is a $5,044 a year difference in taxes-and-HOA alone — before a single dollar of mortgage.
The clearest example on this list: 29147 Crystal Rose Ln is priced at $425,000, and
29650 Mahogany View Ln is priced $16,000 lower at $409,000 —
yet Mahogany View costs $9 MORE every month. Follow it through:
the lower price saves you $83/mo of mortgage and $8/mo of HOA,
but the 3.17% tax rate (versus 2.77%) costs $99/mo more —
so the whole $16,000 discount is eaten, and then some. Over ten years the "cheaper" house
costs roughly $1,027 extra. The tax rate is worth more than the sticker price here.
Widest spread on the whole list: 29322 Wood Lily Dr at $2,828/mo versus
29650 Mahogany View Ln at $3,506/mo — $678 a month apart,
on homes only $50,000 apart in price.
Address
Community
List price
Sq ft
$/sf
Tax rate
Tax /mo
HOA /mo
Tax+HOA /mo
P&I /mo
TOTAL /mo
Over pre-approval
29322 Wood Lily Dr
Firethorne West Sec 12
$359,000
2,205
$162.81
2.29%
$685
$92
$777
$1,851
$2,828
—
4915 N Caponi Falls Ln S
Cinco Ranch Southwest Village
$375,000
1,868
$200.75
2.18%
$681
$128
$809
$1,934
$2,943
—
4910 Pebble Beach Pl
Cinco Ranch Southwest Sec 63
$395,900
1,695
$233.57
2.18%
$719
$128
$847
$2,042
$3,088
—
29411 Amber Pine Ct
Jordan Ranch Sec 25 (David Weekley)
$380,000
2,160
$175.93
2.79%
$884
$103
$986
$1,960
$3,146
—
4506 Hazel Bay Ct
The Brooks At Cross Creek Ranch Sec 3
$394,500
2,088
$188.94
2.77%
$912
$117
$1,028
$2,034
$3,263
—
4910 Augusta Pointe Ct
Cinco Ranch Southwest Sec 63
$435,000
2,110
$206.16
2.18%
$792
$128
$919
$2,243
$3,363
+$35,000
55 Floral Hills Ln
Cross Creek Ranch (Sitterle Homes)
$415,000
2,186
$189.84
2.77%
$958
$125
$1,083
$2,140
$3,423
+$15,000
29147 Crystal Rose Ln
The Brooks At Cross Creek Ranch Sec 1
$425,000
2,301
$184.70
2.77%
$981
$125 (confirm)
$1,106
$2,192
$3,498
+$25,000
29650 Mahogany View Ln
Creek Rush At Cross Creek Ranch
$409,000
2,433
$168.11
3.17%
$1,080
$117
$1,197
$2,109
$3,506
+$9,000
Sorted cheapest-to-priciest by total monthly. Tap a column heading to re-sort, drag a row to reorder, and the address column stays put when you scroll sideways. Listing data as of 2026-08-09.
How these numbers were built — so you can check every one of them:
List price, sq ft, tax rate, HOA — straight from the HAR MLS listing data, as of 2026-08-09.
Property tax /mo = list price × the listing's tax rate ÷ 12. Real tax is billed on the county's
assessed value, not the price you pay, and this does not yet include a homestead exemption. Treat it as a
like-for-like comparison, not a bill.
P&I = 30-year fixed at 6.69% (Freddie Mac national average, week ending 2026-08-06)
with 20% down. The down payment is an assumption — you have not
settled that yet, and gift funds would change it. Your actual rate comes from Michael, not from a national average.
Insurance — the same $2,400/yr estimate is applied to all 9 so it never tilts the
comparison. Not yet quoted on any of them.
Tax+HOA /mo is the one column that does not depend on your loan — it is what the house costs to
hold no matter how you pay for it. That is the honest apples-to-apples column.
The three neighbourhood clusters
Cluster
Homes
From Missy's
Tax rate
Total /mo range
Cross Creek Ranch · Fulshear 77441
4
0.7 mi
2.77%–3.17%
$3,263–$3,506
Jordan Ranch / Firethorne · Katy North
2
3.4 mi
2.29%–2.79%
$2,828–$3,146
Cinco Ranch Southwest · Katy 77494
3
3.2 mi
2.18%–2.18%
$2,943–$3,363
Distances are straight-line from 5823 Stern Springs Ln; the route map shows real driving.
The scene — dining & the local vibe
You are not moving to a strip-mall suburb with nowhere to go. Historic downtown Fulshear —
Main Street where FM 1093 meets FM 359, about 1.5 miles from the Cross Creek Ranch homes — packs a
genuinely local block: Pier 36 Seafood & Oyster Bar, Essence House Cafe, Pepperoni's,
the Ace Hardware, and Dozier's BBQ & Meat Market, the meat market and barbecue joint on 3rd Street. The Bob Lutts Fulshear/Simonton Branch Library is on the
same few blocks, and the Fulshear Farmers Market sets up on Bois D'Arc Lane.
Closer in, Cross Creek Ranch's own village centre at 6450 Cross Creek Bend Lane is where the team behind
Local Table is opening Local Spot — pizzas, sandwiches, cocktails, full service — in the former
Italian Maid Cafe space. And the FM 1463 corridor, the one you will drive between the Cross Creek and
Jordan Ranch stops, is the everyday strip: Fajita Pete's, Fusion Wok, Banh Mi juice-and-sandwich, Southern Maid Donuts.
Head east and you reach LaCenterra at Cinco Ranch — the open-air town centre for this side of
Katy — and Katy Mills for the big-box run.
Places and coordinates confirmed against OpenStreetMap (Overpass + Nominatim, 2026-08-08),
the H-E-B store directory, and Community Impact / Cross Creek Ranch community reporting. Nothing on this page is
a chain we padded the list with — the chain names are filtered out.
🛒Grocery🔧Hardware🛍Shopping centers🏪Store density / corridors⭐Local favorites
On-site checks — what Joseph is looking at while you look at the kitchen
One story, for real. 3 of the 9 are confirmed single-story in the MLS/appraisal record;
the other 6 are UNCONFIRMED on paper.
Joseph confirms each one with the listing agent before you drive out — a two-story home is a wasted stop.
No pool. That was your call and it is the right one financially too: Joseph's underwriting rule of thumb
is that a pool returns only about half its install cost at resale, and it is a permanent maintenance line. None of these nine is listed with one —
Joseph eyeballs the back yard anyway, because listings mislabel.
The lot and the upkeep. These are patio-scale lots, 5,562–7,486 sq ft.
Missy's note was that "the size of the patio homes seems to be a good fit" — low yard, low upkeep. Joseph checks
what the HOA actually maintains versus what you do.
Roof, HVAC, water heater. Everything here is 2013–2022 build, so these should all be original and
still in their first cycle. Ages get confirmed with each listing agent, in writing, on the Setup page.
Drainage and the street. Fort Bend County — Joseph walks the lot low points, the ditch-versus-curb
situation, and where the water goes. Flood zone and any MUD detail come from the seller's disclosure and survey,
not from us guessing.
Cadence. Three to four homes an hour is the honest pace. Nine homes, 9:00 to about 11:46a.
Your criteria — locked, so we can hold ourselves to them
One story · under $450K · built 2010 or later · no pool · the same area as Missy ·
patio-home scale. Lender: Michael, pre-approved to $400,000.
Per Missy Howard, 2026-08-03 ("the size of the patio homes seems to be a good fit"); pre-approval per lender Michael, 2026-08-07.
Things we still need to confirm — we are not guessing at these:
One story. That is your criterion, and only 4910 Pebble Beach Pl is independently confirmed
single-story so far. Every other home is UNCONFIRMED — Joseph confirms each one with
the listing agent before Sunday.
29147 Crystal Rose Ln HOA. The listing itself says "confirm amount with HOA". The
$1,500 shown is the listed figure and has not been verified, so its monthly total
could move.
Your pre-approval. $400,000 as of 2026-08-07. 4 of these 7 are priced above it:
55 Floral Hills Ln (+$15,000), 29147 Crystal Rose Ln (+$25,000), 29650 Mahogany View Ln (+$9,000), 4910 Augusta Pointe Ct (+$35,000). That is a conversation with Michael about
gift funds, not a reason to skip them.
Insurance.Not quoted on any of the nine. The same $2,400/yr placeholder
is used across all of them so it never tilts the comparison — but it is a placeholder, not a quote.
Your rate. The 6.69% here is the Freddie Mac national average for the week ending 2026-08-06.
Your actual rate is Michael's number, not this one.
Sources & as-of dates
Source
What it gave us
As of
Link
Zillow
77441 typical value $518,728, DOWN 2.0% over the past year
list price, sq ft, beds/baths, year built, lot size, HOA, tax rate, DOM, status and open houses for all 9 homes (CDOM is not published for the two newest — those render UNKNOWN)
2026-08-09
Joseph's portal export
OpenStreetMap (Overpass + Nominatim)
coordinates for all 9 homes and every grocery / hardware / shopping / dining pin on this page
Every external claim on this page carries three or more independent sources. Where a number is ours
(monthly payment estimates), the assumptions behind it are printed above rather than buried.
② Tour — the route, the neighbourhood and the numbers. ③ Conduct →
— rate each home live on your phone as we walk it.
Part of the Roberts Showing Tour Pack · built 2026-08-09. The Property Joes Group · Joseph Diosana, TREC 0522138.